Presidential elections: Ponta leads in all polls. CCSCC gives Iohannis the best chances

With only few days left until the first round of Romania’s presidential election scheduled on November 2, 2014, Victor Ponta and Klaus Johannis seem to have no competitors and will enter the run-off which will be held two weeks later. Elena Udrea, the PMP leader, and the independent candidates, Calin Popescu-Tariceanu, President of Senate and Monica Macovei, Member of the European Parliament, complete the top five as per Romanians’ voting intention, yet none of them is expected to exceed the 10 percent threshold.

14 candidates engaged in the presidential race, probably the most challenging and generating the highest interest since 2004 when Traian Basescu took the Cotroceni office. According to the latest polls, Victor Ponta, the candidate supported by PSD, UNPR and PC and Klaus Iohannis, the candidate designated by ACL, will go smoothly in the second round of elections, as neither of them will obtain the majority of 50 percent plus 1, nor any of the other important contenders will possibly obtain such a score that will push him or her into the top two.

The rest of the candidates, Teodor Melescanu (independent), Dan Diaconescu (PPDD), Kelemen Hunor (UDMR), Szilagy Zsolt (PPMT), Corneliu Vadim Tudor (PRM), Constantin Rotaru (PAS), Willian Branza (PER), Mirel Mircea Amaritei (Pro P), Gheorghe Funar (independent), are rated even lower, none of them being expected to achieve 5 percent.

CCSCC poll gives Iohannis the best chances to win the run-off

Victor Ponta, PSD’s president and Romania’s Prime Minister since May 2012, has the best chance to win both the first round and the eventual run-off according to polls, yet his score ranges from about 36 percent of the votes in the first round to about 43 percent, whereas in the second one he might get at least 50 percent, shows a poll conducted by CCSCC (Centre for Research and Qualitative and Quantitative Studies).

Hence, the CCSCC indicates Ponta as the winner of the first round (36 percent), while in the run-off he would score about 50 percent, same as his main competitor Klaus Iohannis, currently the Mayor of Sibiu city. The latter, representing ACL, the center-right wing alliance incorporating PDL, PNL and FC, will secure 30 percent of the votes registered on November 2 and he will strive to win the run-off, this poll being the sole that places him on a par with Ponta.

Monica Macovei, the former Minister of Justice who currently holds her second term as MEP, would have 7 percent of the votes, the best score of all polls, followed Elena Udrea and Calin Popescu-Tariceanu, both with 6 percent. As the other polls indicate, they are the only contenders who could obtain competitive scores, yet their ranking varies depending on the institutions that conducted the surveys.

Ponta would obtain 43 percent of the votes, according to the latest poll released by IRES

The Prime Minister is the top choice of the Romanian voters, as per the latest poll conducted by the Romanian Institute for Evaluation and Strategy (IRES). He would be elected by 43 percent of all registered voters, Klaus Iohannis obtaining 30 percent of the votes.

The second-echelon candidates cumulated score would total 19 percent of the votes, with Elena Udrea obtaining the third place (8 percent), followed by the former Prime-Minister and PNL leader, Tariceanu (6 percent) and Monica Macovei (5 percent).

Victor Ponta would win elections in the second round against Klaus Iohannis with 55 percent to 45 percent. 

INSCOP poll: Same names, different percentages

No major differences are indicated by the poll of INSCOP Research, the leading candidates maintaining approximately the same shares: Victor Ponta – 40.6 percent and Klaus Iohannis – 30.1 percent. Udrea, who is publicly supported by President Traian Basescu would get 6.7 percent of the votes and Tariceanu would be closely behind with 6.2 percent. Monica Macovei would be placed the fourth (4.6 percent), position shared with Teodor Melescanu, previously head of SIE (the Foreign Intelligence Service).

As Ponta and Iohannis are very likely to confront in the run-off, the PSD leader will secure the victory according to INSCOP. He would obtain 53.5 percent of the votes and Iohannis, 46.5 percent.